Super-typhoon global frequency could increase 10-fold by 2100
The frequency of violent typhoons whose winds exceed 194 kph could increase about 10-fold by the end of this century due to the continuing trend of global warming, a team of government scientists has concluded.
The prediction was made by a research group at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.
The team, led by Kazuyoshi Ouchi, used a supercomputer to simulate cloud movement and calculate atmospheric conditions over the entire Earth in 14-square-kilometer sectors.
Until now, the smallest such area for which researchers could perform calculations was 20 square kilometers.
The researchers projected the number of global tropical cyclones would fall by 25 percent by the end of this century. But they also found that in the same period, the average annual number of strong typhoons--now just one per June-to-October typhoon season--would rise to 10.
The calculation took into account predicted future carbon dioxide levels.
They said it was possible a strong typhoon with winds of more than 216 kph, similar in strength to the 1959 Isewan Typhoon (internationally known as Super Typhoon Vera), would strike Japan every year.
(May. 2, 2010)